NYSE Price Correlations Are Abitrageable Over Hours and Predictable Over Years

Trade prices of about 1000 New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks are studied at one-minute time resolution over the continuous five year period 2018--2022. For each stock, in dollar-volume-weighted transaction time, the discrepancy from a Brownian-motion martingale is measured on timescales of minutes to several days. The result is well fit by a power-law shot-noise (or Gaussian) process with Hurst exponent 0.465, that is, slightly mean-reverting. As a check, we execute an arbitrage strategy on ...