Towards a Bayesian framework for option pricing

In this paper, we describe a general method for constructing the posterior distribution of an option price. Our framework takes as inputs the prior distributions of the parameters of the stochastic process followed by the underlying, as well as the likelihood function implied by the observed price history for the underlying. Our work extends that of Karolyi (1993) and Darsinos and Satchell (2001), but with the crucial difference that the likelihood function we use for inference is that which is ...