Revealed and Concealed Repression: Measurement, Deterrence, and Backlash

Regimes routinely conceal acts of repression. We show that observed repression may be negatively correlated with total repression -- which includes both revealed and concealed acts -- across time and space. This distortion implies that policy interventions aimed at reducing repression by incentivizing regimes can produce perverse effects. It also poses challenges for research evaluating the efficacy of repression -- its deterrent and backlash effects. To address this, we develop a model in which regimes choose both whether to repress and whether to conceal repression. We leverage equilibrium relationships to propose a method for recovering concealed repression using observable data. We then provide an informational theory of deterrence and backlash effects, identifying the conditions under which each arises and intensifies. Finally, we show that comparing protest probabilities in the presence and absence of repression provides an upper bound on the size of the backlash effect, overstating its magnitude and thereby underestimating the efficacy of repression.