Brett Hemenway Falk, Gerry Tsoukalas, Niuniu Zhang
Existing studies on crypto wash trading often use indirect statistical methods or leaked private data, both with inherent limitations. This paper leverages public on-chain NFT data for a more direct and granular estimation. Analyzing three major exchanges, we find that ~38% (30-40%) of trades and ~60% (25-95%) of traded value likely involve manipulation, with significant variation across exchanges. This direct evidence enables a critical reassessment of existing indirect methods, identifying roundedness-based regressions à la Cong et al. (2023) as most promising, though still error-prone in the NFT setting. To address this, we develop an AI-based estimator that integrates these regressions in a machine learning framework, significantly reducing both exchange- and trade-level estimation errors in NFT markets (and beyond).
Quantitative mode stability for the wave equation on the Kerr-Newman spacetime
Risk-Aware Objective-Based Forecasting in Inertia Management
Chainalysis: Geography of Cryptocurrency 2023
Periodicity in Cryptocurrency Volatility and Liquidity
Impact of Geometric Uncertainty on the Computation of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Wall Strain
Simulation-based Bayesian inference with ameliorative learned summary statistics -- Part I