Matteo Barigozzi, Claudio Lissona, Matteo Luciani
We measure the Euro Area (EA) output gap and potential output using a non-stationary dynamic factor model estimated on a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial variables. Our results indicate that, between 2012 and 2024, the EA economy was consistently tighter than suggested by institutional estimates, implying that its weak growth reflects a potential output problem rather than a business-cycle one. Moreover, we find that the decline in trend inflation-rather than economic slack-kept core inflation below 2% before the pandemic, while demand forces explain at least 30% of the post-pandemic rise in core inflation.
Quantitative mode stability for the wave equation on the Kerr-Newman spacetime
Risk-Aware Objective-Based Forecasting in Inertia Management
Chainalysis: Geography of Cryptocurrency 2023
Periodicity in Cryptocurrency Volatility and Liquidity
Impact of Geometric Uncertainty on the Computation of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Wall Strain
Simulation-based Bayesian inference with ameliorative learned summary statistics -- Part I